Unknown friends
Aliens
Start with the number of stars in our galaxy, b which is conservatively estimated at 100 billion, though is often cited as three times that. Of those 100 billion from 20% to 50% probably harbor planetary systems— an estimate that becomes more and more reliable as the Kepler Space Telescope and various ground-based observatories detect increasing numbers ofexoplanets.
Astronomers looking for alien signals have examined only a few thousand star
systems so far. But as SETI Institute senior astronomer Seth Shostak has noted, the rate at whichresearcher are able to process the massive amounts of data that radio telescopes receive doubles approximately every 18 months to two years, meaning it grows by a factor of ten every six years or so.
The mere existence of intelligent life forms tells us nothing, however, unless they have the ability to make themselves known— which means to manipulate radio wave and other forms of electromagnetic signaling. Drake estimates that from 10% to 20% of the smart civilizations would clear that bar.
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